Are humans naturally bad at dealing with large-scale disasters? This question came up during a recent talk at New York University’s King Juan Carlos Center. Climate scientist Sonali McDermid and cultural theorist Mary Louise Pratt discussed the intense wildfires in Los Angeles and Fort McMurray, Alberta, pointing to a deeper issue: our inability to process and respond to extreme catastrophes.
They referenced Fire Weather, a 2024 book by John Vaillant about the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire. The fire was so intense it reignited its own smoke and burned with enough heat to turn ceramic toilets into ash. McDermid and Pratt suggested that events like this reveal a deeper truth—humans are not good at predicting or managing such disasters.
One key reason may be psychological. People often react to future dangers with a kind of mental autopilot. Our brains are wired to look for familiar patterns. Whether it’s a wildfire or a traffic accident, if something seems like a past experience, we mentally file it away as something we already know how to handle. Over time, this turns into a habit. And habit often leads to underreaction.
Here’s how it works in the brain: The prefrontal cortex (PFC) processes new information and sends it to the corpus striatum, part of the brain’s decision-making system. When the same type of event happens repeatedly, the pathway between the PFC and striatum becomes well-worn. Fewer neurons are needed to activate it, which makes the brain react faster, but not always smarter. The brain is designed to conserve energy, so if something feels familiar, it assumes the same response will work again. This can be a dangerous shortcut.
A tragic example of this kind of thinking is the 2015 sinking of the SS El Faro during Hurricane Joaquin. Captain Michael Davidson was an experienced mariner. He had sailed through rough storms before and believed this hurricane was no different. But Joaquin gained strength unusually fast, powered by record-warm ocean temperatures likely linked to climate change. Davidson treated it like any other storm. He even went to sleep during a critical time when the ship could have changed course.
Because Davidson had safely navigated similar storms in the past, he assumed the same strategies would work. He was wrong. Joaquin became a Category 3 hurricane and overwhelmed El Faro near the Bahamas. The ship sank on October 1, 2015, killing Davidson and all 32 crew members.
Researchers who study disasters, especially in systems engineering, have looked into this issue. They focus on how to prevent accidents like the Fukushima nuclear disaster or the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. A key idea is “risk perception”—how people judge danger. When someone feels they’ve seen a situation before, they may stop paying full attention. One risk journal described this as “self-satisfaction,” leading to a false sense of safety.
Whether we call it habit, complacency, or poor risk awareness, the core problem remains: our brains are quick to assume we’ve seen it all before. This instinct may have helped early humans survive routine dangers like floods or storms. But in an era of climate change and complex technology, that same instinct can make us blind to growing threats. Recognizing this mental blind spot is the first step toward facing disasters with the seriousness they deserve.
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